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CAR: Double-digit price gains will give way to smaller increases as more homes listed in 2014

California home prices will increase at a more modest pace in 2014, as primary homebuyers rather than investors become more prevalent in the market.

The state’s median home price – meaning half the homes sell for more, the other half for less – will increase 6% in 2014, compared to the projected 28% rise this year, according to the California Association of Realtors. California has enjoyed double-digit gains for the past several months, as foreclosed homes and investors flock into the market.

Annual home sales will improve 3.2% to 444,000 units, a slight gain from projected sales in 2013. Home sales are expected to be down a modest 2.1% this year compared to 2012.

A home for sale in East Sacramento.
A home for sale in East Sacramento.

“The housing market has improved over the past year, and we expect the trend to continue into 2014,” says CAR president Don Faught. “As the economy enters the fourth year of a modest recovery, we expect to see a strong demand for homeownership, as buyers who may have been competing with investors and facing an extreme shortage of available housing return from the sidelines.”

Many communities are reporting faster-than-average home sales in recent months, especially in the Bay Area where almost half of the homes listed are sold within two weeks, according to a recent Redfin report.

“We’ve seen a marked improvement in housing market conditions in a year with the distressed market shrinking from one in three sales a year ago to less than one in five in recent months, thanks primarily to sharp gains in home prices,” says CAR vice president and chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “As the market continues to improve, more previously underwater homeowners will look toward selling, making housing inventory less scarce in 2014. As a result of these factors, we’ll see home prices moderately from the double-digit increases we saw for much of this year to mid-single digits in most of the state.”

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CAR: Home prices increase 29.8% in July, sales end six-month slide

Higher interest rates failed to halt homeowners in July, as sales increased at the best pace in more than a year and double-digit price gains continued for the 13th-consecutive month.

Closed escrow sales climbed to an annual rate of 443,520 homes in July, a 7% increase from July 2012, according to the California Association of Realtors. The year-to-year sales increase was the first since December, and ended six consecutive months of declines.

Thirty-year, fixed-interest mortgage rates inched up to 4.37% in July, compared to 4.07% in June and 3.55% in July 2012.

“The spike in interest rates in June prompted homebuyers to delay escrow closings in hopes that rates would fall back,” says California Association of Realtors President Don Faught. “As buyers recognized rates had stabilized, they moved forward to close escrow, which lifted July’s sales from both the previous month and year.”

July’s median-home price – meaning half the homes sold for more, the other half for less – reached $433,760, a 29.8% increase from a year ago. Home prices have increased 17 straight months.

newport beach 1Marin County is the priciest market at $1 million – the only county above the million-dollar threshold – followed by San Mateo County at $919,000. Glenn and Siskiyou counties had the lowest median price at $140,000 in July.

“A constrained supply of homes over the past year has fueled robust home price increases, particularly in the coastal regions,” says Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist for CAR.

“Looking ahead, we should continue to see strong price growth but at a less accelerated pace than what we’ve experienced over the past year,” she says. “Inventory areas are starting to build in some areas as price gains free up previously underwater homes and encourage homeowners reluctant to list because of the scarcity of homes to purchase.”

Some closely watched figures remained steady last month – the available supply of homes for sale was 2.9 months and the average days on the market was 29 days, according to CAR.